Landscaping State Modeling in a Small Town

Submitted: Sep 29, 2013; Accepted: Nov 2, 2013; Published: Nov 8, 2013 Abstract: The article describes a model and forecasting algorithm of landscaping state in a small town for a specified period of time. The model describes the stages of tree growth milestones from planting of saplings to plant loss. The theory of probabilistic finite-state automatons is used to form the model. Expert evaluations serve as the initial conditions of survival probability and tree loss for various technologies of plant care and different natural factors. The data of the environmental passport of the town of Kamyshin in the Volgograd Region are also the initial data. We have provided the results of computational experiments allowing comparing the effectiveness of various landscaping technologies as well as evaluating the impact of external factors on the state of a park of tree species in the distant future. The criterion of greenery planting quality is the age composition of trees and the number of them. The algorithm of forecasting of the state of landscaping imitates frost cracks for different technologies. The area of model application is the future planning of work on landscaping in the town.